20100528 Timer Commentary

This is the second day of the new build of the market timing systems. The Climber has had a back-to-back signal change, which was very infrequent with the previous logic, but will be more frequent with the new logic – the Climber may make multiple changes during the time the Mountaineer model only takes one.

For new members, do not be surprised that the market timing models sometimes take opposite positions. The calculations in the models have some commonality, but also some differences…they take different paths to pursue gains. Do not change the model you are using just to chase temporary performance.

The new backtested performance will be published over the weekend. Remember that backtesting is not real performance. We are not trying to cover-up difficult periods of real performance but to increase the statistical probability of better future performance.

The true performance as tracked by TimerTrac will remain available and open for review.

In a previous blog article, we disclosed that we were using the Mountaineer model for our own accounts as it had similar performance to the Climber without always being in the market (cash positions). We will now be using the Climber for our personal trading (review the new backtested results when available).

For members who have not renewed through the new website, the 2009 price will be removed from accessibility sometime Monday, and the increased price will be the only option available.

Wishing ALL of you success in your investing decisions!