20080818 Timer Commentary

Three weeks ago at 1234 on the S&P, we expected a retesting of the 1200 area. Since then, the market has crawled up through several levels of resistance and taken up line-dancing along the downward-sloping 50-day moving average.

People we consider smart are finding unusual patterns in their favorite data that only happen at significant market turns – but they are split on whether it signals a top or bottom! Our perception is that the recent gains have lacked conviction and our market timing models continue to suggest the short-term probability is to the downside.